Moody’s vs. Zillow: Each firm’s 2023 home price outlook for over 300 regional housing markets

For 124 consecutive months, spanning the bottom of the housing crash in March 2012 through the Pandemic Housing Boom's peak in June 2022, U.S. home prices posted

positive month-over-month growth. That streak, of course, got broken thanks to last year's mortgage rate shock: Through October, U.S. home prices as measured by Case-Shiller fell

for four consecutive months. On one hand, the 2.4% drop in U.S. home prices through October 2022 remains mild. On the other hand, economists and analysts remain sharply

divided on whether this is simply a minor setback for home price growth or the early innings of a sharper correction. The relatively bullish crowd includes Zillow. The

latest housing forecast produced by Zillow economists has U.S. home values falling just 1.1% between November 2022 and November 2023. Meanwhile, the relatively bearish

camp includes firms like Moody's Analytics. Its forecast has national home prices falling 5.1% between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023.

Peak-to-trough, Moody's expects U.S. home prices to fall 10%. Keep in mind when a group like Zillow or Moody's Analytics says "U.S. home prices," they're talking about

an aggregated view of the country. In regional housing markets—heck, in each neighborhood—the results could vary significantly. To better understand Zillow and Moody's

respective forecasts, let’s delve into their regional price projections. View this interactive chart on Bifurcated. That's the one word that best

describes Zillow's 2023 outlook for the U.S. housing market.